Precalculus 2e — Original English

Fitting Exponential Models to Data

Learning Objectives

  • Draw and interpret scatter diagrams (linear, exponential, logarithmic). (CA 4.3.1)
  • Fit a regression equation to a set of data and use the linear (or exponential) model to make predictions. (CA 4.3.4)

Objective 1: Draw and interpret scatter diagrams (linear, exponential, logarithmic). (CA 4.3.1)

A Scatter Plot is a graph of plotted points that may show a relationship between the variables in a set of data.

Example 1

Draw and interpret scatter diagrams (linear, exponential, logarithmic).

Using a Scatter Plot to Investigate Cricket Chirps

The table below shows the number of cricket chirps in 15 seconds, for several different air temperatures, in degrees Fahrenheit Selected data from http://classic.globe.gov/fsl/scientistsblog/2007/10/. Retrieved Aug 3, 2010 . Plot this data, and determine whether the data appears to be linearly related.

Cricket Chirps vs Air Temperature
Chirps 44 35 20.4 33 31 35 18.5 37 26
Temperature 80.5 70.5 57 66 68 72 52 73.5 53
Solution

Plotting this data, as depicted below, suggests that there may be a trend. We can see from the trend in the data that the number of chirps increases as the temperature increases. The trend appears to be roughly linear, though certainly not perfectly so.

Scatter plot, titled 'Cricket Chirps vs. Air Temperature'. The x-axis is the Cricket Chirps in 15 Seconds, and the y-axis is the Temperature (F). The line regression is generally positive.
Figure 1

Practice Makes Perfect

Draw and interpret scatter diagrams ( linear, exponential, logarithmic).

Make a scatter plot for the table below. Does it look linear? Exponential? Logarithmic?

.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
y 0 1.5 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.4
A blank Cartesian coordinate plane with labeled x and y axes, displaying a grid. The x-axis extends from negative to positive values, and the y-axis also extends from negative to positive values.

Make a scatter plot for the table below. Does it look linear? Exponential? Logarithmic?

.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
y 3.3 5.6 9.1 15.1 24.4 40.2 66.2 108.4 180.1
A blank Cartesian coordinate plane with labeled x and y axes, featuring a grid background. The x-axis ranges from approximately -5 to 9, and the y-axis from -110 to 210.

Make a scatter plot for the table below. Does it look linear? Exponential? Logarithmic?

.
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
y 3 5.5 7 10 12.1 14.9
A blank Cartesian coordinate plane with labeled x and y axes, featuring a grid background. The x-axis ranges from approximately -5 to 10, and the y-axis from -10 to 20.

Objective 2: Fit a regression equation to a set of data and use the linear (or exponential) model to make predictions. (CA 4.3.4)

We can find a linear function that fits the data in the previous problem by “eyeballing” a line that seems to fit. But while estimating a line works relatively well, technology can help us find a line that fits the data as perfect as possible.

This line is called the Least Squares Regression Line or Linear Regression Model.

A regression line is a line that is closest to the data in the scatter plot, which means that such a line is a best fit for the data.

Fit a regression equation to a set of data and use the linear (or exponential) model to make predictions.

Example 2
Fit a regression equation to a set of data and use the linear (or exponential) model to make predictions.

Find the linear regression line using the cricket-chirp data in the example earlier in this section, and find the temperature if there are 30 chirps in 15 seconds.

Solution

Enter the input (chirps) in List 1.

  1. Enter the output (temperature) in List 2.
    .
    L1 44 35 20.4 33 31 35 18.5 37 26
    L2 80.5 70.5 57 66 68 72 52 73.5 53
  2. On a graphing utility, select Linear Regression (LinReg). Using the cricket chirp data, with technology we obtain the equation: T(c)=30.281+1.143c
  3. To find the temperature for 30 chirps in 15 seconds we substitute 30 for x and find T:
    T(30)=30.281+1.143(30) =64.57164.6degrees
  4. The graph of the scatter plot with the regression line of best fit is shown.

Practice Makes Perfect

Fit a regression equation to a set of data and use the linear (or exponential) model to make predictions.

Gasoline consumption in the United States has been steadily increasing from 1994 to 2004.

.
Year 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Consumption
(billions of gallons)
113 116 118 119 123 125 126 128 131 133 136
  • Determine whether the trend is linear, and if so, use your graphing utility to find a model for the data.
  • Use the model to predict the consumption in 2008.

We determined in the second practice problem, earlier in this section, that the data below has an exponential trend. Use your graphing utility to find an exponential model that fits the data the best and write your exponential model below (Hint: instead of choosing Linear Regression, choose Exponential Regression).

summary
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
y 3.3 5.6 9.1 15.1 24.4 40.2 66.2 108.4 180.1

In previous sections of this chapter, we were either given a function explicitly to graph or evaluate, or we were given a set of points that were guaranteed to lie on the curve. Then we used algebra to find the equation that fit the points exactly. In this section, we use a modeling technique called regression analysis to find a curve that models data collected from real-world observations. With regression analysis, we don’t expect all the points to lie perfectly on the curve. The idea is to find a model that best fits the data. Then we use the model to make predictions about future events.

Do not be confused by the word model. In mathematics, we often use the terms function, equation, and model interchangeably, even though they each have their own formal definition. The term model is typically used to indicate that the equation or function approximates a real-world situation.

We will concentrate on three types of regression models in this section: exponential, logarithmic, and logistic. Having already worked with each of these functions gives us an advantage. Knowing their formal definitions, the behavior of their graphs, and some of their real-world applications gives us the opportunity to deepen our understanding. As each regression model is presented, key features and definitions of its associated function are included for review. Take a moment to rethink each of these functions, reflect on the work we’ve done so far, and then explore the ways regression is used to model real-world phenomena.

Building an Exponential Model from Data

As we’ve learned, there are a multitude of situations that can be modeled by exponential functions, such as investment growth, radioactive decay, atmospheric pressure changes, and temperatures of a cooling object. What do these phenomena have in common? For one thing, all the models either increase or decrease as time moves forward. But that’s not the whole story. It’s the way data increase or decrease that helps us determine whether it is best modeled by an exponential equation. Knowing the behavior of exponential functions in general allows us to recognize when to use exponential regression, so let’s review exponential growth and decay.

Recall that exponential functions have the form y=a b x or y= A 0 e kx . When performing regression analysis, we use the form most commonly used on graphing utilities, y=a b x . Take a moment to reflect on the characteristics we’ve already learned about the exponential function y=a b x (assume a>0):

  • b must be greater than zero and not equal to one.
  • The initial value of the model is y=a.
    • If b>1, the function models exponential growth. As x increases, the outputs of the model increase slowly at first, but then increase more and more rapidly, without bound.
    • If 0<b<1, the function models exponential decay. As x increases, the outputs for the model decrease rapidly at first and then level off to become asymptotic to the x-axis. In other words, the outputs never become equal to or less than zero.

As part of the results, your calculator will display a number known as the correlation coefficient, labeled by the variable r, or r 2 . (You may have to change the calculator’s settings for these to be shown.) The values are an indication of the “goodness of fit” of the regression equation to the data. We more commonly use the value of r 2 instead of r, but the closer either value is to 1, the better the regression equation approximates the data.

Example 3

Using Exponential Regression to Fit a Model to Data

In 2007, a university study was published investigating the crash risk of alcohol impaired driving. Data from 2,871 crashes were used to measure the association of a person’s blood alcohol level (BAC) with the risk of being in an accident. Table 1 shows results from the study Source: Indiana University Center for Studies of Law in Action, 2007. The relative risk is a measure of how many times more likely a person is to crash. So, for example, a person with a BAC of 0.09 is 3.54 times as likely to crash as a person who has not been drinking alcohol.

Table 1 Two rows and thirteen columns. The first row is labeled, “BAC”, and the second row is labeled, “Relative Risk of Crashing”. Reading the columns as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (0, 1), (0.01, 1.03), (0.03, 1.06), (0.05, 1.38), (0.07, 2.09), (0.09, 3.54), (0.11, 6.41), (0.13, 12.6), (0.15, 22.1), (0.17, 39.05), (0.19, 65.32), and (0.21, 4.394).
BAC 0 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09
Relative Risk of Crashing 1 1.03 1.06 1.38 2.09 3.54
BAC 0.11 0.13 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21
Relative Risk of Crashing 6.41 12.6 22.1 39.05 65.32 99.78
  1. Let x represent the BAC level, and let y represent the corresponding relative risk. Use exponential regression to fit a model to these data.
  2. After 6 drinks, a person weighing 160 pounds will have a BAC of about 0.16. How many times more likely is a person with this weight to crash if they drive after having a 6-pack of beer? Round to the nearest hundredth.
Solution
  1. Using the STAT then EDIT menu on a graphing utility, list the BAC values in L1 and the relative risk values in L2. Then use the STATPLOT feature to verify that the scatterplot follows the exponential pattern shown in Figure 2:
    Graph of a scattered plot.
    Figure 2

    Use the “ExpReg” command from the STAT then CALC menu to obtain the exponential model,

    y=0.58304829 ( 2.20720213E10 ) x

    Converting from scientific notation, we have:

    y=0.58304829 ( 22,072,021,300 ) x

    Notice that r 2 0.97 which indicates the model is a good fit to the data. To see this, graph the model in the same window as the scatterplot to verify it is a good fit as shown in Figure 3:

    Graph of a scattered plot with an estimation line.
    Figure 3
  2. Use the model to estimate the risk associated with a BAC of 0.16. Substitute 0.16 for x in the model and solve for y.

    y =0.58304829 ( 22,072,021,300 ) x Use the regression model found in part (a). =0.58304829 ( 22,072,021,300 ) 0.16 Substitute 0.16 for x. 26.35 Round to the nearest hundredth.

    If a 160-pound person drives after having 6 drinks, they are about 26.35 times more likely to crash than if driving while sober.

Building a Logarithmic Model from Data

Just as with exponential functions, there are many real-world applications for logarithmic functions: intensity of sound, pH levels of solutions, yields of chemical reactions, production of goods, and growth of infants. As with exponential models, data modeled by logarithmic functions are either always increasing or always decreasing as time moves forward. Again, it is the way they increase or decrease that helps us determine whether a logarithmic model is best.

Recall that logarithmic functions increase or decrease rapidly at first, but then steadily slow as time moves on. By reflecting on the characteristics we’ve already learned about this function, we can better analyze real world situations that reflect this type of growth or decay. When performing logarithmic regression analysis, we use the form of the logarithmic function most commonly used on graphing utilities, y=a+bln( x ). For this function

  • All input values, x, must be greater than zero.
  • The point ( 1,a ) is on the graph of the model.
  • If b>0, the model is increasing. Growth increases rapidly at first and then steadily slows over time.
  • If b<0, the model is decreasing. Decay occurs rapidly at first and then steadily slows over time.
Example 4

Using Logarithmic Regression to Fit a Model to Data

Due to advances in medicine and higher standards of living, life expectancy has been increasing in most developed countries since the beginning of the 20th century.

Table 3 shows the average life expectancies, in years, of Americans from 1900–2010Source: Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013.

Table 3 Two rows and twelve columns. The first row is labeled, “Year”, and the second row is labeled, “Life Expectancy (Years)”. Reading the columns as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1900, 47.3), (1910, 50.0), (1920, 54.1), (1930, 59.7), (1940, 62.9), (1950, 68.2), (1960, 69.7), (1970, 70.8), (1980, 73,7), (1990, 75.4), (2000, 76.8) and (2010, 78.7).
Year 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Life Expectancy(Years) 47.3 50.0 54.1 59.7 62.9 68.2
Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Life Expectancy(Years) 69.7 70.8 73.7 75.4 76.8 78.7
  1. Let x represent time in decades starting with x=1 for the year 1900, x=2 for the year 1910, and so on. Let y represent the corresponding life expectancy. Use logarithmic regression to fit a model to these data.
  2. Use the model to predict the average American life expectancy for the year 2030.
Solution
  1. Using the STAT then EDIT menu on a graphing utility, list the years using values 1–12 in L1 and the corresponding life expectancy in L2. Then use the STATPLOT feature to verify that the scatterplot follows a logarithmic pattern as shown in Figure 4:
    Graph of a scattered plot.
    Figure 4

    Use the “LnReg” command from the STAT then CALC menu to obtain the logarithmic model,

    y=42.52722583+13.85752327ln(x)

    Next, graph the model in the same window as the scatterplot to verify it is a good fit as shown in Figure 5:

    Graph of a scattered plot with an estimation line.
    Figure 5
  2. To predict the life expectancy of an American in the year 2030, substitute x=14 for the in the model and solve for y:
    y =42.52722583+13.85752327ln(x) Use the regression model found in part (a). =42.52722583+13.85752327ln(14) Substitute 14 for x. 79.1 Round to the nearest tenth.

    If life expectancy continues to increase at this pace, the average life expectancy of an American will be 79.1 by the year 2030.

Building a Logistic Model from Data

Like exponential and logarithmic growth, logistic growth increases over time. One of the most notable differences with logistic growth models is that, at a certain point, growth steadily slows and the function approaches an upper bound, or limiting value. Because of this, logistic regression is best for modeling phenomena where there are limits in expansion, such as availability of living space or nutrients.

It is worth pointing out that logistic functions actually model resource-limited exponential growth. There are many examples of this type of growth in real-world situations, including population growth and spread of disease, rumors, and even stains in fabric. When performing logistic regression analysis, we use the form most commonly used on graphing utilities:

y= c 1+a e bx

Recall that:

  • c 1+a is the initial value of the model.
  • when b>0, the model increases rapidly at first until it reaches its point of maximum growth rate, ( ln( a ) b , c 2 ). At that point, growth steadily slows and the function becomes asymptotic to the upper bound y=c.
  • c is the limiting value, sometimes called the carrying capacity, of the model.
Example 5

Using Logistic Regression to Fit a Model to Data

Mobile telephone service has increased rapidly in America since the mid 1990s. Today, almost all residents have cellular service. Table 5 shows the percentage of Americans with cellular service between the years 1995 and 2012 Source: The World Bank, 2013.

Table 5 Nineteen rows and two columns. The first column is labeled, “Year”, and the second column is labeled, “Americans with Cellular Service (%)”. Reading the columns as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1995, 12.69), (1996, 16.35), (1997, 20.29), (1998, 25.08), (1999, 30.81), (2000, 38.75), (2001, 45.00), (2002, 49.16), (2003, 55.15), (2004, 62.85), (2005, 68.63), (2006, 76.64), (2007, 82.47), (2008, 85.68), (2009, 89.14), (2010, 91.86), (2011, 95.28), and (2012, 98.17).
Year Americans with Cellular Service (%) Year Americans with Cellular Service (%)
1995 12.69 2004 62.852
1996 16.35 2005 68.63
1997 20.29 2006 76.64
1998 25.08 2007 82.47
1999 30.81 2008 85.68
2000 38.75 2009 89.14
2001 45.00 2010 91.86
2002 49.16 2011 95.28
2003 55.15 2012 98.17
  • Let x represent time in years starting with x=0 for the year 1995. Let y represent the corresponding percentage of residents with cellular service. Use logistic regression to fit a model to these data.
  • Use the model to calculate the percentage of Americans with cell service in the year 2013. Round to the nearest tenth of a percent.
  • Discuss the value returned for the upper limit, c. What does this tell you about the model? What would the limiting value be if the model were exact?
Solution
  • Using the STAT then EDIT menu on a graphing utility, list the years using values 0–15 in L1 and the corresponding percentage in L2. Then use the STATPLOT feature to verify that the scatterplot follows a logistic pattern as shown in Figure 6:
    Graph of a scattered plot.
    Figure 6

    Use the “Logistic” command from the STAT then CALC menu to obtain the logistic model,

    y= 105.7379526 1+6.88328979 e 0.2595440013x

    Next, graph the model in the same window as shown in Figure 7 the scatterplot to verify it is a good fit:

    Graph of a scattered plot with an estimation line.
    Figure 7
  • To approximate the percentage of Americans with cellular service in the year 2013, substitute x=18 for the in the model and solve for y:

    y = 105.7379526 1+6.88328979 e 0.2595440013x Use the regression model found in part (a). = 105.7379526 1+6.88328979 e 0.2595440013(18) Substitute 18 for x. 99.3  Round to the nearest tenth

    According to the model, about 99.3% of Americans had cellular service in 2013.

  • The model gives a limiting value of about 105. This means that the maximum possible percentage of Americans with cellular service would be 105%, which is impossible. (How could over 100% of a population have cellular service?) If the model were exact, the limiting value would be c=100 and the model’s outputs would get very close to, but never actually reach 100%. After all, there will always be someone out there without cellular service!

Key Concepts

  • Exponential regression is used to model situations where growth begins slowly and then accelerates rapidly without bound, or where decay begins rapidly and then slows down to get closer and closer to zero.
  • We use the command “ExpReg” on a graphing utility to fit function of the form y=a b x to a set of data points. See Example 3.
  • Logarithmic regression is used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time.
  • We use the command “LnReg” on a graphing utility to fit a function of the form y=a+bln( x ) to a set of data points. See Example 4.
  • Logistic regression is used to model situations where growth accelerates rapidly at first and then steadily slows as the function approaches an upper limit.
  • We use the command “Logistic” on a graphing utility to fit a function of the form y= c 1+a e bx to a set of data points. See Example 5.

Section Exercises

Verbal

Exercise 1

What situations are best modeled by a logistic equation? Give an example, and state a case for why the example is a good fit.

Solution

Logistic models are best used for situations that have limited values. For example, populations cannot grow indefinitely since resources such as food, water, and space are limited, so a logistic model best describes populations.

Exercise 2

What is a carrying capacity? What kind of model has a carrying capacity built into its formula? Why does this make sense?

Exercise 3

What is regression analysis? Describe the process of performing regression analysis on a graphing utility.

Solution

Regression analysis is the process of finding an equation that best fits a given set of data points. To perform a regression analysis on a graphing utility, first list the given points using the STAT then EDIT menu. Next graph the scatter plot using the STAT PLOT feature. The shape of the data points on the scatter graph can help determine which regression feature to use. Once this is determined, select the appropriate regression analysis command from the STAT then CALC menu.

Exercise 4

What might a scatterplot of data points look like if it were best described by a logarithmic model?

Exercise 5

What does the y-intercept on the graph of a logistic equation correspond to for a population modeled by that equation?

Solution

The y-intercept on the graph of a logistic equation corresponds to the initial population for the population model.

Graphical

For the following exercises, match the given function of best fit with the appropriate scatterplot in Figure 8 through Figure 12. Answer using the letter beneath the matching graph.

Graph of a scattered plot.
Figure 8
Graph of a scattered plot.
Figure 9
Graph of a scattered plot.
Figure 10
Graph of a scattered plot.
Figure 11
Graph of a scattered plot.
Figure 12
Exercise 6

y=10.209 e 0.294x

Exercise 7

y=5.5981.912ln(x)

Solution

C

Exercise 8

y=2.104 ( 1.479 ) x

Exercise 9

y=4.607+2.733ln(x)

Solution

B

Exercise 10

y= 14.005 1+2.79 e 0.812x

Numeric

Exercise 11

To the nearest whole number, what is the initial value of a population modeled by the logistic equation P(t)= 175 1+6.995 e 0.68t ? What is the carrying capacity?

Solution

P(0)=22 ; 175

Exercise 12

Rewrite the exponential model A(t)=1550 ( 1.085 ) x as an equivalent model with base e. Express the exponent to four significant digits.

Exercise 13

A logarithmic model is given by the equation h(p)=67.6825.792ln( p ). To the nearest hundredth, for what value of p does h(p)=62?

Solution

p2.67

Exercise 14

A logistic model is given by the equation P(t)= 90 1+5 e 0.42t . To the nearest hundredth, for what value of t does P(t)=45?

Exercise 15

What is the y-intercept on the graph of the logistic model given in the previous exercise?

Solution

y-intercept: ( 0,15 )

Technology

For the following exercises, use this scenario: The population P of a koi pond over x months is modeled by the function P(x)= 68 1+16 e 0.28x .

Exercise 16

Graph the population model to show the population over a span of 3 years.

Exercise 17

What was the initial population of koi?

Solution

4 koi

Exercise 18

How many koi will the pond have after one and a half years?

Exercise 19

How many months will it take before there are 20 koi in the pond?

Solution

about 6.8 months.

Exercise 20

Use the intersect feature to approximate the number of months it will take before the population of the pond reaches half its carrying capacity.

For the following exercises, use this scenario: The population P of an endangered species habitat for wolves is modeled by the function P(x)= 558 1+54.8 e 0.462x , where x is given in years.

Exercise 21

Graph the population model to show the population over a span of 10 years.

Solution
A two-dimensional line graph with an x-axis ranging from 0 to 20 and a y-axis ranging from 0 to 600. A dark blue, S-shaped curve begins near the origin, approximately at (1, 15), and ascends through the graph, passing roughly through points (5, 80), (10, 300), and (15, 500), before ending with an arrow around (17.5, 550) towards the top right.
Exercise 22

What was the initial population of wolves transported to the habitat?

Exercise 23

How many wolves will the habitat have after 3 years?

Solution

About 38 wolves

Exercise 24

How many years will it take before there are 100 wolves in the habitat?

Exercise 25

Use the intersect feature to approximate the number of years it will take before the population of the habitat reaches half its carrying capacity.

Solution

About 8.7 years

For the following exercises, refer to Table 7.

Table 7 Two columns and seven row. The first column labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 1125), (2, 1495), (3, 2310), (4, 3295), (5, 4650), and (6, 6361).
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
f(x) 1125 1495 2310 3294 4650 6361
Exercise 26

Use a graphing calculator to create a scatter diagram of the data.

Exercise 27

Use the regression feature to find an exponential function that best fits the data in the table.

Solution

f(x)= 776.682(1.426)x

Exercise 28

Write the exponential function as an exponential equation with base e.

Exercise 29

Graph the exponential equation on the scatter diagram.

Solution
A graph illustrating exponential growth, showing an orange curve with six blue data points plotted. As the x-value increases, the y-value rapidly increases, indicating a steep upward trend.
Exercise 30

Use the intersect feature to find the value of x for which f(x)=4000.

For the following exercises, refer to Table 8.

Table 8 Two columns and seven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 555), (2, 383), (3, 307), (4, 210), (5, 158), and (6, 122).
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
f(x) 555 383 307 210 158 122
Exercise 31

Use a graphing calculator to create a scatter diagram of the data.

Solution
A scatter plot on a grid shows six blue data points with x-values from 1 to 6 and corresponding y-values decreasing from 550 to 120, illustrating a negative correlation.
Exercise 32

Use the regression feature to find an exponential function that best fits the data in the table.

Exercise 33

Write the exponential function as an exponential equation with base e.

Solution

f(x)= 731.92e-0.3038x

Exercise 34

Graph the exponential equation on the scatter diagram.

Exercise 35

Use the intersect feature to find the value of x for which f(x)=250.

Solution

When f(x)= 250, x3.6

For the following exercises, refer to Table 9.

Table 9 Two columns and seven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 5.1), (2, 6.3), (3, 7.3), (4, 7.7), (5, 8.1), and (6, 8.6).
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
f(x) 5.1 6.3 7.3 7.7 8.1 8.6
Exercise 36

Use a graphing calculator to create a scatter diagram of the data.

Exercise 37

Use the LOGarithm option of the REGression feature to find a logarithmic function of the form y=a+bln( x ) that best fits the data in the table.

Solution

y=5.063+1.934log(x)

Exercise 38

Use the logarithmic function to find the value of the function when x=10.

Exercise 39

Graph the logarithmic equation on the scatter diagram.

Solution
An image showing an orange curve passing through six blue data points on a grid with x-axis from 0 to 7 and y-axis from 0 to 10, indicating an increasing trend.
Exercise 40

Use the intersect feature to find the value of x for which f(x)=7.

For the following exercises, refer to Table 10.

Table 10 Two columns and nine nows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 7.5), (2, 6), (3, 5.2), (4, 4.3), (5, 3.9), (6, 3.4), (7, 3.1), and (8, 2.9).
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
f(x) 7.5 6 5.2 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.9
Exercise 41

Use a graphing calculator to create a scatter diagram of the data.

Solution
A scatter plot shows a series of data points illustrating a decreasing trend. As the x-value increases from 1 to 8, the corresponding y-value generally decreases from approximately 7.5 to 2.9, indicating a negative correlation.
Exercise 42

Use the LOGarithm option of the REGression feature to find a logarithmic function of the form y=a+bln( x ) that best fits the data in the table.

Exercise 43

Use the logarithmic function to find the value of the function when x=10.

Solution

When f(10) 2.3

Exercise 44

Graph the logarithmic equation on the scatter diagram.

Exercise 45

Use the intersect feature to find the value of x for which f(x)=8.

Solution

When f(x)= 8, x0.82

For the following exercises, refer to Table 11.

Table 11 Two columns and eleven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 8.7), (2, 12.3), (3, 15.4), (4, 18.5), (5, 20.7), (6, 22.5), (7, 23.3), (8, 24), (9, 24.6), and (10, 24.8).
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
f(x) 8.7 12.3 15.4 18.5 20.7 22.5 23.3 24 24.6 24.8
Exercise 46

Use a graphing calculator to create a scatter diagram of the data.

Exercise 47

Use the LOGISTIC regression option to find a logistic growth model of the form y= c 1+a e bx that best fits the data in the table.

Solution

f(x)= 25.081 1+3.182 e 0.545x

Exercise 48

Graph the logistic equation on the scatter diagram.

Exercise 49

To the nearest whole number, what is the predicted carrying capacity of the model?

Solution

About 25

Exercise 50

Use the intersect feature to find the value of x for which the model reaches half its carrying capacity.

For the following exercises, refer to Table 12.

Table 12 Two columns and eleven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (0, 12), (2, 28.6), (4, 52.8), (5, 70.3), (7, 99.9), (8, 112.5), (10, 125.8), (11, 127.9), (15, 135.1), and (17, 135.9).
x 0 2 4 5 7 8 10 11 15 17
f(x) 12 28.6 52.8 70.3 99.9 112.5 125.8 127.9 135.1 135.9
Exercise 51

Use a graphing calculator to create a scatter diagram of the data.

Solution
A scatter plot shows ten data points on a grid with an x-axis from 0 to 18 and a y-axis from 0 to 140. The points exhibit a strong increasing trend.
Exercise 52

Use the LOGISTIC regression option to find a logistic growth model of the form y= c 1+a e bx that best fits the data in the table.

Exercise 53

Graph the logistic equation on the scatter diagram.

Solution
A graph with an x-axis labeled from 0 to 18 and a y-axis labeled from 0 to 140. An orange S-shaped curve is plotted, starting near (0, 11), increasing steeply through points such as (2, 29), (4, 53), (5, 70), (7, 100), (8, 112), and (10, 126), and then flattening out as it approaches a maximum y-value around 135-136, with data points at (11, 128) and (15, 134). The curve suggests logistic growth.
Exercise 54

To the nearest whole number, what is the predicted carrying capacity of the model?

Exercise 55

Use the intersect feature to find the value of x for which the model reaches half its carrying capacity.

Solution

When f(x)= 68, x4.9

Extensions

Exercise 56

Recall that the general form of a logistic equation for a population is given by P(t)= c 1+a e bt , such that the initial population at time t=0 is P(0)= P 0 . Show algebraically that cP(t) P(t) = c P 0 P 0 e bt .

Exercise 57

Use a graphing utility to find an exponential regression formula f(x) and a logarithmic regression formula g(x) for the points ( 1.5,1.5 ) and ( 8.5,8.5 ). Round all numbers to 6 decimal places. Graph the points and both formulas along with the line y=x on the same axis. Make a conjecture about the relationship of the regression formulas.

Solution

f(x)= 1.034341(1.281204)x ; g(x)= 4.035510 ; the regression curves are symmetrical about y=x , so it appears that they are inverse functions.

Exercise 58

Verify the conjecture made in the previous exercise. Round all numbers to six decimal places when necessary.

Exercise 59

Find the inverse function f 1 ( x ) for the logistic function f(x)= c 1+a e bx . Show all steps.

Solution

f 1 ( x ) = ln(a)-ln(cx-1) b

Exercise 60

Use the result from the previous exercise to graph the logistic model P(t)= 20 1+4 e 0.5t along with its inverse on the same axis. What are the intercepts and asymptotes of each function?

Chapter Review Exercises

Exponential Functions

Determine whether the function y=156 ( 0.825 ) t represents exponential growth, exponential decay, or neither. Explain

Solution

exponential decay; The growth factor, 0.825, is between 0 and 1.

The population of a herd of deer is represented by the function A(t)=205 (1.13) t , where t is given in years. To the nearest whole number, what will the herd population be after 6 years?

Find an exponential equation that passes through the points (2, 2.25) and (5,60.75).

Solution

y=0.25 ( 3 ) x

Determine whether Table 13 could represent a function that is linear, exponential, or neither. If it appears to be exponential, find a function that passes through the points.

Table 13 Two rows and five columns. The first row is labeled, “x”, and the second row is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the columns as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 3), (2, 0.9), (3, 0.27), and (4, 0.081).
x 1 2 3 4
f(x) 3 0.9 0.27 0.081

A retirement account is opened with an initial deposit of $8,500 and earns 8.12% interest compounded monthly. What will the account be worth in 20 years?

Solution

$42,888.18

Hsu-Mei wants to save $5,000 for a down payment on a car. To the nearest dollar, how much will she need to invest in an account now with 7.5% APR, compounded daily, in order to reach her goal in 3 years?

Does the equation y=2.294 e 0.654t represent continuous growth, continuous decay, or neither? Explain.

Solution

continuous decay; the growth rate is negative.

Suppose an investment account is opened with an initial deposit of $10,500 earning 6.25% interest, compounded continuously. How much will the account be worth after 25 years?

Graphs of Exponential Functions

Graph the function f(x)=3.5 ( 2 ) x . State the domain and range and give the y-intercept.

Solution

domain: all real numbers; range: all real numbers strictly greater than zero; y-intercept: (0, 3.5);

Graph of f(x)=3.5(2^x)

Graph the function f(x)=4 ( 1 8 ) x and its reflection about the y-axis on the same axes, and give the y-intercept.

The graph of f(x)= 6.5 x is reflected about the y-axis and stretched vertically by a factor of 7. What is the equation of the new function, g(x)? State its y-intercept, domain, and range.

Solution

g(x)=7 ( 6.5 ) x ; y-intercept: (0,7); Domain: all real numbers; Range: all real numbers greater than 0.

The graph below shows transformations of the graph of f(x)= 2 x . What is the equation for the transformation?

Graph of f(x)=2^x
Figure 13

Logarithmic Functions

Rewrite log 17 ( 4913 )=x as an equivalent exponential equation.

Solution

17 x =4913

Rewrite ln( s )=t as an equivalent exponential equation.

Rewrite a 2 5 =b as an equivalent logarithmic equation.

Solution

log a b= 2 5

Rewrite e 3.5 =h as an equivalent logarithmic equation.

Solve for x if log 64 (x)= 1 3 by converting the logarithmic equation log 64 (x)= 1 3 to exponential form.

Solution

x= 64 1 3 =4

Evaluate log 5 ( 1 125 ) without using a calculator.

Evaluate log( 0.000001 ) without using a calculator.

Solution

log( 0.000001 )=6

Evaluate log(4.005) using a calculator. Round to the nearest thousandth.

Evaluate ln( e 0.8648 ) without using a calculator.

Solution

ln( e 0.8648 )=0.8648

Evaluate ln( 18 3 ) using a calculator. Round to the nearest thousandth.

Graphs of Logarithmic Functions

Graph the function g(x)=log( 7x+21 )4.

Solution


Graph of g(x)=log(7x+21)-4.

Graph the function h(x)=2ln( 93x )+1.

State the domain, vertical asymptote, and end behavior of the function g(x)=ln( 4x+20 )17.

Solution

Domain: x>5; Vertical asymptote: x=5; End behavior: as x 5 + ,f(x) and as x,f(x).

Logarithmic Properties

Rewrite ln( 7r11st ) in expanded form.

Rewrite log 8 ( x )+ log 8 ( 5 )+ log 8 ( y )+ log 8 ( 13 ) in compact form.

Solution

log 8 ( 65xy )

Rewrite log m ( 67 83 ) in expanded form.

Rewrite ln( z )ln( x )ln( y ) in compact form.

Solution

ln( z xy )

Rewrite ln( 1 x 5 ) as a product.

Rewrite log y ( 1 12 ) as a single logarithm.

Solution

log y ( 12 )

Use properties of logarithms to expand log( r 2 s 11 t 14 ).

Use properties of logarithms to expand ln( 2b b+1 b1 ).

Solution

ln( 2 )+ln( b )+ ln( b+1 )ln( b1 ) 2

Condense the expression 5ln( b )+ln( c )+ ln( 4a ) 2 to a single logarithm.

Condense the expression 3 log 7 v+6 log 7 w log 7 u 3 to a single logarithm.

Solution

log 7 ( v 3 w 6 u 3 )

Rewrite log 3 ( 12.75 ) to base e.

Rewrite 5 12x17 =125 as a logarithm. Then apply the change of base formula to solve for x using the common log. Round to the nearest thousandth.

Solution

x= log( 125 ) log( 5 ) +17 12 = 5 3

Exponential and Logarithmic Equations

Solve 216 3x 216 x = 36 3x+2 by rewriting each side with a common base.

Solve 125 ( 1 625 ) x3 = 5 3 by rewriting each side with a common base.

Solution

x=3

Use logarithms to find the exact solution for 7 17 9x 7=49. If there is no solution, write no solution.

Use logarithms to find the exact solution for 3 e 6n2 +1=60. If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

no solution

Find the exact solution for 5 e 3x 4=6 . If there is no solution, write no solution.

Find the exact solution for 2 e 5x2 9=56. If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

no solution

Find the exact solution for 5 2x3 = 7 x+1 . If there is no solution, write no solution.

Find the exact solution for e 2x e x 110=0. If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

x=ln( 11 )

Use the definition of a logarithm to solve. 5 log 7 ( 10n )=5.

Use the definition of a logarithm to find the exact solution for 9+6ln( a+3 )=33.

Solution

a= e 4 3

Use the one-to-one property of logarithms to find an exact solution for log 8 ( 7 )+ log 8 ( 4x )= log 8 ( 5 ). If there is no solution, write no solution.

Use the one-to-one property of logarithms to find an exact solution for ln( 5 )+ln( 5 x 2 5 )=ln( 56 ). If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

x=± 9 5

The formula for measuring sound intensity in decibels D is defined by the equation D=10log( I I 0 ), where I is the intensity of the sound in watts per square meter and I 0 = 10 12 is the lowest level of sound that the average person can hear. How many decibels are emitted from a large orchestra with a sound intensity of 6.3 10 3 watts per square meter?

The population of a city is modeled by the equation P(t)=256,114 e 0.25t where t is measured in years. If the city continues to grow at this rate, how many years will it take for the population to reach one million?

Solution

about 5.45 years

Find the inverse function f 1 for the exponential function f( x )=2 e x+1 5.

Find the inverse function f 1 for the logarithmic function f( x )=0.25 log 2 ( x 3 +1 ).

Solution

f 1 ( x )= 2 4x 1 3

Exponential and Logarithmic Models

For the following exercises, use this scenario: A doctor prescribes 300 milligrams of a therapeutic drug that decays by about 17% each hour.

To the nearest minute, what is the half-life of the drug?

Write an exponential model representing the amount of the drug remaining in the patient’s system after t hours. Then use the formula to find the amount of the drug that would remain in the patient’s system after 24 hours. Round to the nearest hundredth of a gram.

Solution

f(t)=300 ( 0.83 ) t ;
f(24)3.43g

For the following exercises, use this scenario: A soup with an internal temperature of 350° Fahrenheit was taken off the stove to cool in a 71°F room. After fifteen minutes, the internal temperature of the soup was 175°F.

Use Newton’s Law of Cooling to write a formula that models this situation.

How many minutes will it take the soup to cool to 85°F?

Solution

about 45 minutes

For the following exercises, use this scenario: The equation N( t )= 1200 1+199 e 0.625t models the number of people in a school who have heard a rumor after t days.

How many people started the rumor?

To the nearest tenth, how many days will it be before the rumor spreads to half the carrying capacity?

Solution

about 8.5 days

What is the carrying capacity?

For the following exercises, enter the data from each table into a graphing calculator and graph the resulting scatter plots. Determine whether the data from the table would likely represent a function that is linear, exponential, or logarithmic.

Two columns and eleven rpws. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 3.05), (2, 4.42), (3, 6.4), (4, 9.28), (5, 13.46), (6, 19.52), (7, 28.3), (8, 41.01), (9, 59.5), and (10, 86.28).
xf(x)
13.05
24.42
36.4
49.28
513.46
619.52
728.3
841.04
959.5
1086.28
Solution

exponential

Graph of the table’s values.
Two columns and twelve rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (0.5, 18.05), (1, 17), (3, 15.33), (5, 14.55), (7, 14.04), (10, 13.5), (12, 13.22), (13, 13.1), (15, 12.88), (17, 12.69), and (20, 12.45).
xf(x)
0.518.05
117
315.33
514.55
714.04
1013.5
1213.22
1313.1
1512.88
1712.69
2012.45

Find a formula for an exponential equation that goes through the points ( 2,100 ) and ( 0,4 ). Then express the formula as an equivalent equation with base e.

Solution

y=4 ( 0.2 ) x ; y=4 e -1.609438x

Fitting Exponential Models to Data

What is the carrying capacity for a population modeled by the logistic equation P(t)= 250,000 1+499 e 0.45t ? What is the initial population for the model?

The population of a culture of bacteria is modeled by the logistic equation P(t)= 14,250 1+29 e 0.62t , where t is in days. To the nearest tenth, how many days will it take the culture to reach 75% of its carrying capacity?

Solution

about 7.2 days

For the following exercises, use a graphing utility to create a scatter diagram of the data given in the table. Observe the shape of the scatter diagram to determine whether the data is best described by an exponential, logarithmic, or logistic model. Then use the appropriate regression feature to find an equation that models the data. When necessary, round values to five decimal places.

Two columns and eleven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 409.4), (2, 260.7), (3, 170.4), (4, 110.6), (5, 74), (6, 44.7), (7, 32.4), (8, 19.5), (9, 12.7), and (10, 8.1).
xf(x)
1409.4
2260.7
3170.4
4110.6
574
644.7
732.4
819.5
912.7
108.1
Two rows and twelve columns. The first row is labeled, “x”, and the second row is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the columns as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (0.15, 36.21), (0.25, 28.88), (0.5, 24.39), (0.75, 18.28), (1, 16.5), (1.5, 12.99), (2, 9.91), (2.25, 8.57), (2.75, 7.23), (3, 5.99), and (3.5, 4.81).
xf(x)
0.1536.21
0.2528.88
0.524.39
0.7518.28
116.5
1.512.99
29.91
2.258.57
2.757.23
35.99
3.54.81
Solution

logarithmic; y=16.687189.71860ln(x)

Graph of the table’s values.
Two columns and eleven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (0, 9), (2, 22.6), (4, 44.2), (5, 62.1), (7, 96.9), (8, 113.4), (10, 133.4), (11, 137.6), (15, 148.4), and (17, 149.3).
xf(x)
09
222.6
444.2
562.1
796.9
8113.4
10133.4
11137.6
15148.4
17149.3

Practice Test

The population of a pod of bottlenose dolphins is modeled by the function A(t)=8 (1.17) t , where t is given in years. To the nearest whole number, what will the pod population be after 3 years?

Solution

About 13 dolphins.

Find an exponential equation that passes through the points (0, 4) and (2, 9).

Drew wants to save $2,500 to go to the next World Cup. To the nearest dollar, how much will he need to invest in an account now with 6.25% APR, compounding daily, in order to reach his goal in 4 years?

Solution

$1,947

An investment account was opened with an initial deposit of $9,600 and earns 7.4% interest, compounded continuously. How much will the account be worth after 15 years?

Graph the function f(x)=5 ( 0.5 ) x and its reflection across the y-axis on the same axes, and give the y-intercept.

Solution

y-intercept: (0,5)

Graph of f(-x)=5(0.5)^-x in blue and f(x)=5(0.5)^x in orange.

The graph shows transformations of the graph of f(x)= ( 1 2 ) x . What is the equation for the transformation?

Graph of f(x)= (1/2)^x.

Rewrite log 8.5 ( 614.125 )=a as an equivalent exponential equation.

Solution

8.5 a =614.125

Rewrite e 1 2 =m as an equivalent logarithmic equation.

Solve for x by converting the logarithmic equation lo g 1 7 (x)=2 to exponential form.

Solution

x= ( 1 7 ) 2 = 1 49

Evaluate log(10,000,000) without using a calculator.

Evaluate ln( 0.716 ) using a calculator. Round to the nearest thousandth.

Solution

ln( 0.716 )0.334

Graph the function g(x)=log( 126x )+3.

State the domain, vertical asymptote, and end behavior of the function f(x)= log 5 ( 3913x )+7.

Solution

Domain: x<3; Vertical asymptote: x=3; End behavior: x 3 ,f(x) and x,f(x)

Rewrite log( 17a2b ) as a sum.

Rewrite log t ( 96 ) log t ( 8 ) in compact form.

Solution

log t ( 12 )

Rewrite log 8 ( a 1 b ) as a product.

Use properties of logarithm to expand ln( y 3 z 2 x4 3 ).

Solution

3ln( y )+2ln( z )+ ln( x4 ) 3

Condense the expression 4ln( c )+ln( d )+ ln( a ) 3 + ln( b+3 ) 3 to a single logarithm.

Rewrite 16 3x5 =1000 as a logarithm. Then apply the change of base formula to solve for x using the natural log. Round to the nearest thousandth.

Solution

x= ln( 1000 ) ln( 16 ) +5 3 2.497

Solve ( 1 81 ) x 1 243 = ( 1 9 ) 3x1 by rewriting each side with a common base.

Use logarithms to find the exact solution for 9 e 10a8 5=41 . If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

a= ln( 4 )+8 10

Find the exact solution for 10 e 4x+2 +5=56. If there is no solution, write no solution.

Find the exact solution for 5 e 4x1 4=64. If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

no solution

Find the exact solution for 2 x3 = 6 2x1 . If there is no solution, write no solution.

Find the exact solution for e 2x e x 72=0. If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

x=ln( 9 )

Use the definition of a logarithm to find the exact solution for 4log( 2n )7=11

Use the one-to-one property of logarithms to find an exact solution for log( 4 x 2 10 )+log( 3 )=log( 51 ) If there is no solution, write no solution.

Solution

x=± 3 3 2

The formula for measuring sound intensity in decibels D is defined by the equation D=10log( I I 0 ), where I is the intensity of the sound in watts per square meter and I 0 = 10 12 is the lowest level of sound that the average person can hear. How many decibels are emitted from a rock concert with a sound intensity of 4.7 10 1 watts per square meter?

A radiation safety officer is working with 112 grams of a radioactive substance. After 17 days, the sample has decayed to 80 grams. Rounding to five significant digits, write an exponential equation representing this situation. To the nearest day, what is the half-life of this substance?

Solution

f(t)=112 e .019792t ; half-life: about 35 days

Write the formula found in the previous exercise as an equivalent equation with base e. Express the exponent to five significant digits.

A bottle of soda with a temperature of 71° Fahrenheit was taken off a shelf and placed in a refrigerator with an internal temperature of 35° F. After ten minutes, the internal temperature of the soda was 63° F. Use Newton’s Law of Cooling to write a formula that models this situation. To the nearest degree, what will the temperature of the soda be after one hour?

Solution

T(t)=36 e 0.025131t +35;T( 60 ) 43 o F

The population of a wildlife habitat is modeled by the equation P( t )= 360 1+6.2 e 0.35t , where t is given in years. How many animals were originally transported to the habitat? How many years will it take before the habitat reaches half its capacity?

Enter the data from Table 14 into a graphing calculator and graph the resulting scatter plot. Determine whether the data from the table would likely represent a function that is linear, exponential, or logarithmic.

Table 14 Two columns and eleven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 3), (2, 8.55), (3, 11.79), (4, 14.09), (5, 15.88), (6, 17.33), (7, 18.57), (8, 19.64), (9, 20.58), and (10, 21.42).
xf(x)
13
28.55
311.79
414.09
515.88
617.33
718.57
819.64
920.58
1021.42
Solution

logarithmic

Graph of the table’s values.

The population of a lake of fish is modeled by the logistic equation P(t)= 16,120 1+25 e 0.75t , where t is time in years. To the nearest hundredth, how many years will it take the lake to reach 80% of its carrying capacity?

For the following exercises, use a graphing utility to create a scatter diagram of the data given in the table. Observe the shape of the scatter diagram to determine whether the data is best described by an exponential, logarithmic, or logistic model. Then use the appropriate regression feature to find an equation that models the data. When necessary, round values to five decimal places.

Two columns and eleven rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (1, 20), (2, 21.6), (3, 29.2), (4, 36.4), (5, 46.6), (6, 55.7), (7, 72.6), (8, 87.1), (9, 107.2), and (10, 138.1).
xf(x)
120
221.6
329.2
436.4
546.6
655.7
772.6
887.1
9107.2
10138.1
Solution

exponential; y=15.10062 ( 1.24621 ) x

Graph of the table’s values.
Two columns and twelve rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (3, 13.98), (4, 17.84), (5, 20.01), (6, 22.7), (7, 24.1), (8, 26.15), (9, 27.37), (10, 28.38), (11, 29.97), (12, 31.07), and (13, 31.43).
xf(x)
313.98
417.84
520.01
622.7
724.1
826.15
927.37
1028.38
1129.97
1231.07
1331.43
Two columns and twelve rows. The first column is labeled, “x”, and the second column is labeled, “f(x)”. Reading the rows as ordered pairs, we have the following values: (0, 2.2), (0.5, 2.9), (1, 3.9), (1.5,4.8), (2, 6.4), (3, 9.3), (4, 12.3), (5, 15), (6, 16.2), (7, 17.3), and (8, 17.9).
xf(x)
02.2
0.52.9
13.9
1.54.8
26.4
39.3
412.3
515
616.2
717.3
817.9
Solution

logistic; y= 18.41659 1+7.54644 e 0.68375x

Graph of the table’s values.